NASA’s preventative doomsday approach has reached new heights with a test simulating a hypothetical asteroid set to hit Earth in 2038, according to a report released this week. The simulation, the fifth installment of the Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise, involved NASA, the U.S. government, and international representatives collaboratively planning for an asteroid with a 72% chance of impacting Earth in 14 years.
Lindley Johnson, planetary defense officer emeritus at NASA Headquarters in Washington, described the exercise as a critical test of preparedness. “The uncertainties in these initial conditions for the exercise allowed participants to consider a particularly challenging set of circumstances,” Johnson said in a news release. “A large asteroid impact is potentially the only natural disaster humanity has the technology to predict years in advance and take action to prevent.”
The simulated asteroid ranged in size from 60 to 800 meters, with the most probable size between 100 and 320 meters. Participants discussed several strategies to mitigate the threat, with senior figures favoring a U.S. government-led approach in collaboration with international partners. A proposed strategy involved a potential fly-by rendezvous mission rather than waiting until November for telescope sightings.
“These outcomes will help to shape future exercises and studies to ensure NASA and other government agencies continue improving planetary defense preparedness,” Johnson added. The exercise aimed to enhance readiness for potential asteroid threats and facilitate discussions between agencies and potential international collaborators.
This was the first planetary defense event since NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, in which a spacecraft successfully altered an asteroid’s orbit in 2022. The tabletop exercise underscores the importance of ongoing efforts to develop and refine strategies for planetary defense, ensuring that humanity is better prepared to prevent a potential asteroid impact.